When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent European natural gas prices soaring in 2022, wholesale electricity prices followed. But the shock did not hit every country equally. Countries that had invested heavily in low-carbon generation — nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, and bioenergy — saw smaller and shorter-lived price increases than those still reliant on fossil fuels.

This analysis uses publicly available data to quantify the relationship between a country’s pre-crisis low-carbon electricity share and the size of its price increase.

The price shock across Europe

The chart below shows monthly wholesale electricity prices for every European country in the Ember dataset. Use the dropdown to select specific countries, or view them all at once. The 2022 spike — and the uneven recovery — is immediately visible.

sd_prices <- SharedData$new(prices, key = ~country, group = "ts_group")

filter_select(
  id = "country_filter",
  label = "Select countries to highlight",
  sharedData = sd_prices,
  group = ~country,
  multiple = TRUE
)
plot_ly(sd_prices, x = ~date, y = ~price, color = ~country,
        type = "scatter", mode = "lines", line = list(width = 1.3),
        hovertemplate = "%{x|%b %Y}<br>%{y:.2f} c/kWh<extra>%{fullData.name}</extra>") |>
  layout(
    xaxis = list(title = ""),
    yaxis = list(title = "Wholesale price (cents / kWh)"),
    height = 420,
    legend = list(orientation = "v", x = 1.02, y = 1, font = list(size = 8)),
    hovermode = "x unified",
    margin = list(t = 10)
  ) |>
  highlight(on = "plotly_click", off = "plotly_doubleclick",
            persistent = TRUE, selectize = FALSE)